MLB Betting Systems and Strategies Analysis – MLB Tips and Strategies to Win More
Is there any way to win more in MLB betting? Is it possible to make a living with sports betting? Yes there are. There are lots of ways to win more and eliminate unnecessary losing series. Before learning these special techniques and MLB betting strategies, the first thing you should learn is not to make errors which shouldn’t be made.
One of the deadliest mistakes MLB baseball bettors often make is to bet on favorites. Well, it has NOTHING WRONG to bet on favorite, given that you’re a pro bettor who really understand the game and put in much efforts in the stats comparison before betting.
According to statistics for the past 10 years, favorites have lost an average of about 90 units per season. Does that indicate blindly betting underdogs will win you money? Of course not. If you had bet straight underdogs you would have lost about 22 units averagely per season. Both were overall losers but obviously, underdogs lost less in MLB betting.
So what does that indicate?
The general public likes to bet favorites, be it in baseball, basketball or any other sports betting. It is easy to know that a favorite team should win and is very likely to win but you must compare those chances to the money line. Favorites have about a 58% chance of winning but they can still lose money in the long run. One of the tips I often use is to pick small favorites that can win and find decent underdog values when you make a baseball bet.
Another negative part of choosing favorite is that if you lose a big favorite which, happens all the time – the pressure is on to win three in a row to negate your loss on the big favorite. In reality, big favorites do go down more often than you might think. You can win a lot with them with lower odds. But if you’re unlucky losing a few series with them, it will take a pretty hard time for you to win your money back.
So how to find the winning underdogs?
When you’re not sure who to bet, bet on the home underdogs. It is always good to consider the home underdog in baseball if they are playing a divisional rival. Most division games are tough and home dogs offer value in MLB betting. Another place to look in MLB betting is at the underdog when they are hot. If they are hitting the ball well recently and are still a dog they have some value. You can also look at particular lefty/righty matchups were a team does well and is still a dog in MLB betting.
Apart from betting on favorite, another mistake bettors often make is betting on parlay. Parlay offers attractive great odds right? If you think betting parlay is a smart choice, sportsbooks who offer them are laughing at you behind their desk. Obviously, betting parlay is a much dangerous act than any kind of betting especially when you’re not good in betting on single bet. My advice is, master your single bet, make them a consistent profit only consider playing on parlay.
Avoiding these mistakes above can help you pick up more wins and eliminate some unnecessary losses as a whole. However, you surely know it isn’t enough just to avoid these mistakes. To win consistently in MLB, you need to know some unique techniques that are only applied to MLB betting and ultimately follow winning strategies, systems or picks with commitments and discipline.
Here’s one of the simple MLB betting tips. Have you ever heard of the ‘action pitcher’ and ‘listed pitcher’ option in MLB betting?
If you choose the ‘action pitcher’ option, it simply means your bet will take place even if there is a change to the starting pitcher. The ‘listed pitcher’ option works the opposite. Your bet will only take place if the listed starting pitcher at the time of the bet starts the game. If there is a change in starting pitchers, your bet is canceled. This simple technique isn’t a big tip but it can actually help to eliminate some losses in every of your bet.
Another tip is about betting on the run line. Run line betting can be tasty, but it is not piece of cake.
Sometimes this game can appear to be all too easy, can it not? You might spot a perennial powerhouse with their ace going up against the Bad News Bears and their starting pitcher, Adam Lambert. Well you’re no dummy! Instead of eating the huge chalk, you ascertain that there is no way that the favored squad will not win by two or more runs, and play the run line to increase your winnings. If only it were always this simple.
Experts say, however, that this may not be the best strategy when playing the runline. There are a surprisingly high amount of one-run games in Major League Baseball. As of this writing, even the top teams in the league have played in a high percentage of one-run games.
You can see below for the 13 MLB teams with winning records, the percentage of one run victories they have been involved in. Of course they probably were not favored for every one of those, but it can still give you a decent idea of just how many times the RL can beat you, even if the team wins the actual game.
* Dodgers 35% * Mets 33% * Angels 32% * Rangers 31% * Brewers 28% * Tigers 27% * Yankees 27% * Blue Jays 26% * Red Sox 26% * Cardinals 23% * Rays 23% * Phillies 22% * Reds 22% * Giants 18%
I’m not sure what is more shocking – how high some of those numbers are, or the fact that the Giants have a winning record! But as you can see, even your powerhouse teams only win by more than one run about two out of every three times.
Another stat that will make you think twice before pulling that run line trigger is total team scoring. If you compare the most prolific teams to the most anemic, there is a difference of only two runs per game being put on the scoreboard (NYY 5.70, Sea 3.73). That means that everyone in between is averaging pretty darn close within each other. It all makes me wonder if it would just be wiser to play the other side of the run line.
Of course you can always play the RL the opposite way by playing the underdog who is now getting a run and a half to work with. This can be smart at times, but will turn your +125 play into a -140 team real quick. Most players are greedy (like me) and enjoy taking shots every so often at the big hit. But through my experiences, playing the team getting the runs might not be as sexy a date, but will generally put out more often.
If you can follow these tips above and find out more in the internet or forums, basically you can have a close overview on how the bettors commonly bet and how to find leaks to lower your probability of losing and increase the winning probability. It is about probability after all.
The next ultimate thing you need is to follow one or few winning systems that have good transparent winning records.
Many bettors do not believe that there are MLB strategies and systems that work magically.
The fact is, following a good MLB betting system is the key in making a $30k or even a few folds more per annual in MLB betting. People behind the idea of a betting strategies and systems spent many years of their lives by digging through different sports databases to search for patterns and trends to help them come up with an effective betting formula. Professional and advanced bettors have a few MLB systems to follow, while some prefer paying few hundreds to thousands a year for reputable handicapper service to save time in doing the research work.
Keep in mind-To really win consistently wagering on baseball or any sport for that matter you need to invest in a handicapper or system that uses trends, angles, experience, and a proven system to churn out winner after winner to bring in consistent profits.”